The Literary Digest suffered a major reputation loss as a result of the infamous poll and soon went out of business, being superceded by a new generation of pollsters such as George Gallup, who not only got the 1936 election right but also predicted what the Literary Digest’s prediction would be to within 1%, using a sample size just one thousandth the size of the Digest’s but more successfully avoiding selection effects.
The infamous 1936 poll has secured a place in the annals of survey research as a paradigm example of selection bias, yet just as important was a nonresponse bias compounding the error referred to in the text (Squire 1988).—The fishing example originates from Sir Arthur Eddington (Eddington 1939).
When a scientist finds a section of rock that has lots of different strata, he assumes that the bottom-most layer is the oldest, and the top-most layer is the youngest.
But sometimes, a scientist finds a couple of rock outcrops that are separated by a wide distance.
They predicted that Alf Landon, the Republican candidate, would win by a large margin. The poor of the depression era, a group where support for Roosevelt was especially strong, often did not have a phone or a car.
A methodologically more sophisticated forecast would either have used a more representative polling group or at least factored in known and suspected selection effects.
What can be deduced from our two distinct faunas in terms of their usefulness in the relative dating of rocks?Watch this video to find out how we use index fossils to establish the relative ages of rocks.In previous lessons, we talked about the Geologic Time Scale and how scientists use it to piece together the history of the earth.From top to bottom: Rounded tan domes of the Navajo Sandstone, layered red Kayenta Formation, cliff-forming, vertically jointed, red Wingate Sandstone, slope-forming, purplish Chinle Formation, layered, lighter-red Moenkopi Formation, and white, layered Cutler Formation sandstone.Picture from Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Utah.